NATO rearmament could increase emissions by 200 million tonnes a year, study finds

 Researchers say rising defense spending around the world will worsen the climate crisis, leading to more conflict.

Researchers warn that the global military build-up, particularly NATO’s rearmament plans, could significantly threaten climate goals by increasing greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 200 million tons annually.

In 2023, global military spending reached a record $2.46 trillion as countries increased their budgets due to a rise in armed conflicts, the highest since World War II.

Critics argue that investing in new hardware incurs both carbon and opportunity costs for climate action. That’s on top of the huge number of deaths caused by armed conflict.

“There is a real concern about the way we are prioritizing short-term security and neglecting long-term security,” said Eli Kinney, a researcher at the Conflict and Environment Observatory and co-author of the study.

“Because of this kind of ignorant approach, we are now investing in hard-liner militarized security, which is increasing global emissions and worsening the climate crisis.”

This is likely to lead to more violence, with climate change increasingly seen as a cause of conflict, albeit indirectly. In Sudan’s Darfur region, the conflict was linked to competition for scarce resources after prolonged drought and desertification. The melting Arctic Sea ice is increasing tensions about control over oil, gas, and important minerals.

Few militaries openly share their fossil fuel usage, but researchers estimate they account for 5.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

As tensions increase globally and the U.S. Urges NATO allies to boost military spending, military expenditure is expected to rise further.

According to the Global Peace Index, militarization increased in 108 countries in 2023. 92 countries are involved in armed conflicts that range from Ukraine and Gaza to South Sudan and the DRC, due to tensions between China and the United States over Taiwan and a frozen conflict between India and Pakistan, governments fearful of war are investing heavily in their militaries.

Arms spending in EU countries is projected to increase by over 30% between 2021 and 2024, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

In March, the EU announced plans for “Reinforced Europe,” proposing to spend an extra €800 billion across the bloc.

The UN Office for Disarmament Affairs analyzed how increased militarization could affect climate goals. What they discovered was concerning: NATO’s remilitarization could raise emissions by an amount similar to the carbon budget impact of a country as large and populous as Pakistan.

“Our analysis focused on the effects of Sustainable Development Goal 13: Climate Action, which aims to urgently address climate change and its impacts,” said Kinney, the research team leader. “Our analysis indicates that the rise in military spending threatens global climate action.”

The military stands out as one of the most carbon-intensive components of government operations. “First, the equipment they buy, which is largely steel and aluminum, is very carbon-intensive to produce.” The military relies on fossil fuels for mobility during operations, using diesel for ground activities and kerosene for air missions. Warships at sea are using diesel unless they are nuclear-powered.”

The secrecy surrounding militaries and their operations makes it difficult to know exactly how much greenhouse gas they are emitting. Only NATO countries report their greenhouse gas emissions sufficiently, so scientists can try to estimate greenhouse gas emissions.

“We chose NATO because they are the most transparent in terms of their spending. So we don’t want to focus on NATO specifically, but rather collect more data from them.”

Researchers aimed to estimate the increase in greenhouse gas emissions if NATO countries, which already spend significantly more than the U.S., raised their military spending by two percentage points.

This increase is already underway, with many European countries significantly increasing military spending in response to the Ukraine crisis. NATO countries have promised to increase spending to 2% of GDP, but researchers warn that the remilitarized Europe plan could raise greenhouse gas emissions from 1.5% of GDP in 2020 to 3.5%. Researchers expect similar increases for NATO members outside the EU, like the United Kingdom.

The methodology comes from a recent paper suggesting that a 1% increase in military spending as a share of GDP would raise national emissions by 0.9% to 2%. A 2% increase in spending is estimated to raise carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 87 to 194 megatons per year across the bloc.

Researchers warn that a significant rise in emissions will affect both climate disruption and the economy due to global warming. A recent estimate places the social cost of carbon at $1,347 per ton of CO2 emitted. This indicates that NATO’s annual military build-up could cost up to $264 billion.

And that’s just a fraction of the real carbon cost of militarization, Kinney points out. “The 31 countries responsible for only 9% of global emissions are not part of this calculation.”

The analysis notes that high military spending also reduces the resources available for policies aimed at mitigating climate change. The UK, along with Belgium, France, and the Netherlands, is funding increased military spending by cutting its foreign aid budget. This increase in military spending is multi-faceted

Original writer- Damien Gayle, Curtesy: The Gurdian.
Rewriter: Rahman Mahfuz.