Adverse effects of climate are appearing this winter
The average temperature of the country may be slightly higher than normal this winter. At the same time, there may be more rainfall than normal in the month of January and February. This exceptional situation can be created due to the influence of El-Nino.
Meteorologists presented the monsoon forecast at the Climate Application Forum Winter Session organized by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department and the Regional Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Asia and Africa (RIMES) at a Hotel in Dhaka on November 18, 2023. About 40 representatives from various government and private institutions participated in it.
Every year at the beginning of the winter and monsoon season, this forum meeting is organized with stakeholders to discuss the weather forecast for that season.
It involves sharing the seasonal forecast at the beginning of the season with various stakeholders and planning and taking actions for the upcoming season in various sectors.
Dr. SM Kamrul Hasan, Meteorologist, Bangladesh Meteorological Department in the forum, said, “According to the data of global weather models, El Nino has been active since last April.
As a result, major changes are seen in the climate of this region. As a result of this, a major change has been observed in the rainfall in the last monsoon. Which will continue next winter.”
“The full impact of El Nino will last till March 2024. Then it will decrease slightly. By July of that year, El Niño’s influence would decrease to 40 percent.
However, El Nino will continue to have an impact throughout the year 2024. Due to this, major anomalies in weather behavior will be noticed,” he described.
Stating that the ongoing El-Nino in Bangladesh is having a greater impact than the El-Nino that came in the past years, he said, “Due to the El-Nino, there has already been relatively less rain in the past months.
This time there will be abnormality in the winter temperature. Even in winter, the heat will not decrease much. From November 2023 to January 2024, temperature may be higher than normal in most parts of the country.”
“There may also be unusual rains in February. There is a risk of major damage to crops as well as adverse effects on public health,” he warned.
In the welcome address of this winter session of Climate Application Forum, Azizur Rahman, Director of Bangladesh Meteorological Department, highlighted the various aspects of improving weather forecast in recent times and emphasized on increasing awareness and practical application of this issue.
Urging all stakeholders to use accurate forecasting, he said short-term, medium-term and monthly forecasting should be followed along with seasonal forecasting for accurate forecasting results.
The organizers said that this forum is basically a forum of coordination of Meteorological Department and departments related to weather.
They hope that the Climate Application Forum winter session will help decision-making in agriculture sector in rabi season crop production as well as in other sectors like health, civil aviation, shipping, etc.
Raihanlu Haque Khan, climatologist Bangladesh representative of RIMES and Dan Ryan, climatologist of UK Met Office, among others, were present in the event along with the country’s meteorologists and officials from various departments related to weather and climate.
