Climate diplomacy will face tough challenges in 2023
In recent years and even months, weather extremes have left many scars across the globe. It also increases the effect of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. 2023 will also face more such incidents.
Due to climate change, frequent floods, droughts, and wildfires will occur, or their effects will increase. Likewise, climate diplomacy will face new challenges.
Climate change is consistently increasing average temperatures. However, natural climate regulators like El Niño and La Niña also significantly impact the environment. El Niño causes more rain in the central and eastern Pacific and drought in Australia. On the other hand, La Niña causes drought in East Africa and heavy rains in West Africa and South Asia.
Unusually, the current La Niña has passed its third year, which began in September 2020. This is the first time this century has lasted for three consecutive years. Low rainfall in East Africa in late 2022 could exacerbate food scarcity in the region in 2023.
La Nina and El Niño influence the temperature. During La Niña years, the weather is slightly cooler than average.
However, if the current situation changes and La Nina and El Nino have roughly balanced in 2023, the world’s average temperature will increase slightly. If EL Nino takes hold, the Paris Climate Agreement’s warming target of 1.5 degrees Celsius will almost reach. It can show more severity of the weather.
To avoid such destruction of nature and its damage and to control the climate by reducing global carbon emissions, events like COP (Conference of parties) has held where the different nation can upload their climate scenario.
The last COP 27 held in the Egyptian city of Sharm El Sheikh in November 2022. However, the Ukraine war and the associated energy and food crises have influenced climate diplomacy at the COP-27 conference.
Climate politics is usually seen as separate from other geopolitics, but suddenly they seem to be in one voice. For example, while giving more importance to energy security, the use of coal has suddenly increased.
Laurence Tubiana of the European Climate Foundation said the explosion of anxiety among people has changed thinking about the war and previous agreements.
The next climate talks will hold in November 2023 in the United Arab Emirates. Controversy may arise over the selection of this place. Sultan bin Ahmed Al Jaber, the UAE’s climate spokesman, is a minister in that country. He is also the head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, the state-owned oil producer of the United Arab Emirates. Sultan bin Ahmed Al Jaber has expressed his belief that oil and gas will continue to play a role in the public and private carbon-free economy. He believes oil and gas companies should actively participate in the global energy transition process.
On the one hand, reducing greenhouse gas emissions to near zero is possible, but some fossil fuels may turn. In this case, the electrification of cars and trains will be relatively easy.
Decarbonization of air and sea transport will be more difficult. In that case, using some fossil fuels to offset the carbon emitted in other areas may be better than worse.
On the other hand, according to the Paris Climate Agreement, it is necessary to quickly reduce the use of fossil fuels to keep the temperature increase within 1.5-2 degrees Celsius. The International Energy Agency has called for no further development of fossil fuels to reduce carbon emissions to zero.
In that case, on the whole, the climate conference in the United Arab Emirates will give rise to a big debate about the role of oil companies in the transition of energy. Not only that, but it also remains to be seen whether the oil companies can be solution drivers without being a part of the problem.
Courtesy: গ্রীন পেইজ Green Page (Bengali)
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