Cyclone Yaas may hit Khulna coast on 26th May
By Zeba Tarunnum
There is now no existence of Cyclone Yaas, but there are forecasts. Between the second waves of COVID-19, low pressure can form in the North Andaman Sea and the adjoining East-Central Bay of Bengal within a day or two and can originate ‘cyclone Yaas’.
According to the Free Press Journal , the name ‘Yaas’ given by Oman is the Arabic language which means despair. Moreover, the word originates from the Persian language. In English, it is called ‘Jasmine’. In addition, the pronunciation of Yaas in Persian is ‘Yass’.
Generally, the name of the cyclones is given by the member countries of the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Economic and Social Council for Asia. Moreover, they even have a 13 member panel for this. The member countries are India, Iran, Maldives, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and the United Arab Emirates (Dubai) and Yemen. Every year the member countries propose 13 names that are a total of 169 names and from them; a list of selected names is prepared. As if Oman gave the name Yaas, the name of the next cyclone is taken from Pakistan. Which is Gulab. The next will be taken from Qatar. The name of the cyclone given by Qatar is Shahin. In this way, the cyclone names are given by Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen will be used.
If it turns into a cyclone, it will be named Yaas, which is likely to hit the Odisha-West Bengal coast of India and the Khulna coast of Bangladesh by May 25-26.
According to the different statements of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) and the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the low pressure can form around 22nd May which may form a strong cyclone in the sea on 25th May. According to the weather system, first, there will be low pressure in the sea. Later it will turn into depression, in the 3rd stage; it will turn into a deep depression.
Meteorologist Omar Faruk said Yaas could hit from Odisha to the Sundarbans and Chattogram of Bangladesh.
Meteorologist Md. Bajlur Rashid said low pressure could be formed around 22nd to 23rd May in the Bay of Bengal. It will gradually take the form of depression. Later, it may gradually take the form of a cyclone, but the areas that could be hit by the cyclone will be known in a few days.
Dr. AKM Saiful Islam, Professor at the Institute of Water and Flood Management of BUET, said, The United States, the United Kingdom, France, the European Union, and all domestic and foreign meteorological organizations fears, the weather in the Bay of Bengal could turn into a cyclone.
According to the computer models of various organizations, the cyclone is worried to turn into Depression within 72 hours, with an estimated wind speed of 100-110 km per hour. However, the matter of fear is, the longer the cyclone or its earlier phases (light pressure and depression) last in the ocean, the more energy it stores. Almost all models are saying the cyclone will hit between midnight on 25th May to the evening of 26th May.
Therefore, it can’t be said, it won’t turn into a super cyclone in the end. He further said it might rain in the Andaman Sea on 21st May. On the other hand, any cyclone brings a lot of humidity, which causes heavy rains.
Therefore, it may rain heavily by the combination of this two. By keeping the cyclone and heavy rainfall in mind, it is important to take extensive measures in the coast and cities. There is still a lot of time to renovate coastal dams and shelters, prepare volunteers, and take preparation to help distressed people. To prevent the flooding from heavy rain in the city, it is important to clean the drains and canals of the cities on an urgent basis.
On the other hand, The Indian Meteorological Department said, In addition to the cyclone ‘Yaas’ coming through the Bay of Bengal, another cyclone is likely to form in the Arabian Sea, which will be named ‘Gulab’.
Meteorologist Sujib Kar, said by expressing fear, the storm will be more terrible than Cyclone Amphan and it will take more time to pass. Cyclone Aila ‘s maximum speed was 120 kilometers per hour in 2019. Cyclone Amphan was passed at a speed of 133 kilometers per hour. This time how much power will ‘Yaas’ show? This is what everyone is concerned about.
Meteorologist Ramakrishna Dutt said, Yaas will be more accelerated it will cause more damage than Ayla. The more it will be in the water, the more energy it will store, it will have more impact than Aila. The maximum wind speed may be 120 to 150 kilometers per hour while entering the land. Due to relatively low wind speed, many people may be confused about the damage potential of a cyclone. So, want to remind everyone, 26th May is a full moon. Therefore, the moon, sun, and earth will be on the same axis. Due to the combined gravity of the moon and the sun, as per the natural rules, there will be a 2 to 3 feet high tidal wave in the coastal area on that day. Moreover, due to the effect of the possible cyclone, there will 5 to 10 feet higher tidal wave than normal.
Meteorologists added the concentrated depression in the Bay of Bengal could turn into a cyclone and hit the coastal areas of the Bay of Bengal by 25th May. Its direction is towards Bangladesh and West Bengal. If the concentrated depression in the East Bay of Bengal turns into a cyclone, it may initially rush towards Bangladesh. In addition, if the cyclone changes its northwest direction, it could hit the coasts of West Bengal and Odisha.
According to the Meteorological Department, The Sundarbans were devastated by Super Cyclone Amphan on the 20th of May, last year and in the last 10 years, most of the cyclones hit in May. From 1960 to 2017, 36 cyclones hit Bangladesh, of which 15 hit in May. Moreover, in the last era (2008-2020) 7 out of 9 cyclones hit in May. In addition, out of the rest two, one in July and the other in November.
We still have 4 days. Four days is enough time to reduce the loss of life and property. It’s a request to the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief and Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB), to take urgent repair steps by inspecting the embankments in the coastal areas of Khulna Division and Barisal Division. As the saying goes, it is better to take preventive measures than to treat the disease after it has taken place.