Catastrophes could result from a 3-degree rise in global warming
Global warming has increased by 1.1 to 1.3 degrees since the Industrial Revolution. Today’s children are seven times more likely to be exposed to extreme weather than their grandparents are.
So, what will happen if the world temperature rises by 3 degrees? Experts say that what we have seen in Hollywood disaster movies is fiction regarding climate change effects.
However, those are imagination stories, but the future reality will not be very different if fossil fuel use is not reduced drastically.
The effects of global warming are already evident in some parts of the world. The slums of Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, are filled with climate refugees. They have lost their land due to flood and river erosion and are settling in slums.
A temperature increase of only 1.1 to 1.3 degrees Celsius has changed their lifestyle. As of last year, the number of people migrating to Dhaka is 0.4 million. Climate models say the situation will worsen in the future.
Climate scientist Dr Joeri Rogelj spent ten years modeling possible future climates for the United Nations. He created these models using data collected by hundreds of scientists worldwide.
According to Rogelio, “If current policies continue, there is a one in four chance of a temperature increase of 3 degrees Celsius by the end of this century. It may be 2 degrees Celsius even if all commitments follow.
Even then, there will be a 1 in 20 chance of rising to 3 degrees Celsius. A 3-degree Celsius temperature rise will affect everyone. Prosperous cities in rich countries will not escape. Cities like Paris and Berlin will go up in flames. Frequent storms and lightning can make parts of New York uninhabitable.”
Oliver Morton, Briefings Editor of The Economist, said, ‘Cities are generally warmer than their surrounding regions. There is a high incidence of flooding.
As there are more people in the city, more people will be affected. Many cities have not prepared for future problems. However, cities preparing for 3 degrees Celsius in advance might not be that bad off. For others, the situation will become terrible. So far, some cities are going through mild problems.
Nevertheless, many rural areas suffer disproportionately. Smallholder farmers suffer more due to rising temperatures. They produce one-third of the world’s food supply. Central America’s extreme drought is four times more likely than in the last century.
The number of people immigrating to the United States from this region has quadrupled since 1990. Not all of this is due to climate change, but more people will migrate if the drought lasts longer. 3-degree Celsius temperature rise warming could reduce rainfall in Central America by up to 14%. Over a quarter of the world’s population may experience extreme drought for at least one year.”
“Drought in North Africa can last several years. Excessive rain will be a problem for many people because the world’s 10% population lives near coastlines less than 10 meters above sea level.
A 3-degree Celsius temperature rise would spell disaster for those coastal residents. By 2100, the sea level may rise by half a meter compared to 2005. Especially low-lying cities like Lagos in Nigeria can be at risk. Up to one-third of the city’s population could be displaced. Fiji, a small island in the Pacific Ocean, is already suffering from rising sea levels.
The sea is swallowing these small towns. Rising sea levels will also increase storm surge flooding. A 3-degree Celsius temperature rise would leave many people homeless due to storms in many countries such as the Philippines and Myanmar.
They will pass through the city. Half of the world’s people live in cities. About one-third live in slums. For them, 3 degrees Celsius temperature rise would be a big disaster,” he added.